PredictIt
Aristotle, Inc. (Victoria University of Wellington)
The veteran of US political prediction markets: launched in 2014 under a CFTC no-action letter, PredictIt lets you bet on elections, nominations and political events with binary outcome contracts settled in dollars. It is custodial and full KYC, with characteristic limits (historically an $850 per-contract cap). It nearly shut down in 2022 when the CFTC pulled its clearance, but a Fifth Circuit injunction (2023) and a 2025 settlement kept it alive: as of June 2026 it is still operating.
Data & conditions
| Trading fee | 10% |
|---|---|
| Maker fee | Free |
| Fund custody | Custodial (platform holds funds) |
| Market resolution | Regulated (CFTC) |
| Liquidity model | CLOB |
| Active markets | 250+ |
| Market categories | Politics, Economy |
| Leverage available | No |
| Settlement token | USD |
| Fiat on-ramp | Yes |
| KYC | Full |
| Supported countries | US · 1+ countries |
| Regulator | CFTC (no-action letter) |
| OAM Italy registration | No |
| Segment | B2C |
| Past incidents | August 2022: the CFTC withdraws the no-action letter and orders a wind-down · January 2023: Fifth Circuit injunction allowing continued operation · 2025: settlement with the CFTC and amended no-action letter (Letter 25-20) |
| MiCA / License status | CFTC no-action letter (Letter 25-20, lug 2025) CFTC no-action letter (conditional relief, not a permanent safe harbor) |
Strengths
- Long history and track record on US election markets.
- Operates under a CFTC framework (no-action letter updated 2025).
- USD settlement with fiat on-ramp (card, ACH).
- No notable sovereignty advantage documented.
Weaknesses
- High fees: 10% on profits + 5% on withdrawals.
- Custodial, full KYC and US-residents-only access.
- Tight per-contract limits (historically $850) and thin liquidity.
- Fragile regulatory basis: a staff no-action letter, not a permanent safe harbor.
- Custodial: the platform holds your funds and can freeze or lose them.
- Full KYC required: verified identity, zero pseudonymity.
- Funds can be frozen at the platform’s discretion.
- Subject to regulation (CFTC no-action letter (conditional relief, not a permanent safe harbor)): reporting to authorities and freezes on order.
- FATF-aligned jurisdiction: strong cooperation with authorities.
Verdict
PredictIt remains an institution of US political markets, but on protection it pays the price of age: high fees (10% + 5%), tight limits, thin liquidity and above all a fragile regulatory basis, resting on a CFTC staff no-action letter rather than permanent statutory protection. Custodial and US-only, it is a niche tool more than a platform for everyone.
On sovereignty PredictIt offers little: custodial, full KYC, off-chain dollars and US-residents-only access. No self-custody or pseudonymity; like Kalshi, it picks the regulated path at the expense of user control.
Promp's editorial rating based on real fees and net annual cost. Promp reviews third-party products independently.
"Sovereignty" rating: score computed on privacy/anonymity (30%), fund control (20%), censorship resistance (20%), trustless/auditability (20%) and costs (10%). Same data, different weights.
FAQ
Is PredictIt still active in 2026?
Yes. After the CFTC's 2022 shutdown attempt and the Fifth Circuit's 2023 injunction, a 2025 settlement and an amended no-action letter let PredictIt keep operating: as of June 2026 it is open to eligible US users.
How much does PredictIt cost to use?
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on realized profits and a 5% withdrawal fee (computed on net profit). There is no separate per-order maker/taker fee: invested capital is returned without a fee.
Who can use PredictIt?
Only verified US citizens and residents. The service is not available outside the United States.
Sources
- Official service page Regulator · Fees · Limiti · Fondazione Data verified on Jun 23, 2026
- Official service page Url ufficiale · Regioni Data verified on Jun 23, 2026
- covers.com Incidenti storici (settlement CFTC) Data verified on Jun 23, 2026
- defirate.com Stato operativo 2026 Data verified on Jun 23, 2026